The NFL season has hit the midpoint and, though anything can still change, lines have formed between teams in contention and teams making plans to hit the golf course in January. Here is a quick rundown of the playoff race as it stands following week nine action:
NFC East
All four NFC East teams lost in week nine. The Giants are the only team in the division at or above .500. Philadelphia continues a four-game losing streak after suspension-struck New Orleans defeated them on Nov. 5. The Cowboys, at 3-5, are 3-3 in games where the difference was seven points or fewer. Had they won one more, they would sit at 4-4. The Redskins only won once at home and ride a three-game slide with a total deficit of 29 points. At this stage, the 6-3 Giants look poised to walk over their rivals and claim the division title. New York stands fourth in the NFC standings as the division leader while the remaining three lay low in 13th (Philadelphia), 14th (Dallas) and 15th (Washington) with only Carolina below them. The Giants also have the only positive score differential in this group (+69). However, at least one of the remaining teams has a chance to turn their season around in the second half and slip into the Wild Card.
NFC North
By far the strongest group halfway through the season, the Detroit Lions sit at 4-4 below the 7-1 Chicago Bears, 6-3 Green Bay Packers and 5-4 Minnesota Vikings. Chicago’s sole loss came at Green Bay in week two, and they ride a six-game winning streak with the highest score differential in the league (+116). The Packers have won four in a row after a shaky 2-3 start, the first of which handed the Houston Texans their first loss of the season. Minnesota has little momentum as they lost back-to-back games against Seattle and Tampa Bay, though their simplistic style has bested San Francisco and Detroit. The Lions have recovered from a three-game skid and have gone 3-1 since. Any team could win out, but with how the Bears have functioned as a team, they are on track to take the title with a wild card spot for second place (and maybe third).
NFC South
The Atlanta Falcons remain the only undefeated team in the league this season after their 19-13 victory over Dallas. Five such victories were by seven or fewer. Other than the Falcons, no other teams particularly stand out. Tampa Bay sits at 4-4 with a three-game losing streak from weeks two through four, all against NFC East teams and all by seven or fewer. The New Orleans Saints, at 3-5, have Atlanta twice, San Francisco and New York remaining in their schedule. The Carolina Panthers fired their general manager after their loss against Dallas and snapped a five-game skid win a win over Washington in week nine. The Falcons have a primrose path to the division crown with New York and Detroit remaining as the biggest obstacles to 16-0.
NFC West
San Francisco (6-2) has played as a solid unit aside from their losses to the Vikings and the Giants. Chicago will pay the 49ers a visit before they play New England on the East Coast. Seattle pulled a surprise victory over New England and recently defeated Minnesota. Arizona looked strong out of the gate, but followed a four-game winning streak with a five-game slide. They get a bye week off week 10 before they hit the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. St. Louis started 3-2 before a three-game losing streak, but the rest of the schedule does not look easy as they play San Francisco twice and Minnesota. The 49ers are en route to the division crown, but the Seahawks are in the hunt to come from behind or at least take a wild card slot.
NFC Playoffs if they started today:
#1 Atlanta gets a first-round bye and guaranteed home field in the NFC playoffs
#2 Chicago gets a first-round bye
#6 Seattle at #3 San Francisco in the Wild Card round
#5 Green Bay at #4 New York Giants in the Wild Card round
NFC Playoff Prediction:
#1 Atlanta (14-2) gets a first-round bye and guaranteed home field in the NFC playoffs
#2 Chicago (13-3) gets a first-round bye
#6 Dallas (9-7) at #3 San Francisco (12-4) in the Wild Card round
#5 Seattle (10-6) at #4 New York Giants (10-6) in the Wild Card round
AFC East
Two games separate first (New England at 5-3) from last (Buffalo at 3-5) in this division. The Patriots are 2-0 against division rivals and prevailed over the Denver Broncos in week five. The Miami Dolphins have pulled a few surprises as they sit at 4-4, one game behind the leading Patriots. The Jets sit 2-2 against division opponents as they split their series against Miami, defeated Buffalo and lost to New England in overtime. Their non-division losses came against three tough opponents in San Francisco, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Buffalo stands 0-2 against division rivals and lost to sub-.500 spoiler Tennessee in week seven. Miami could pull out the division and end New England’s reign, though San Francisco stands in their remaining schedule. Both New England-Miami games may determine the outcome of this race. If Miami can split that series, they may break New England’s three-year reign as division champions and claim their first title since 2008.
AFC North
The split in the North is a bit clearer as Baltimore (6-2) and Pittsburgh (5-3) fight for control of the division while Cincinnati (3-5) and Cleveland (2-7) serve as spoilers and spectators. Both leaders stand perfect at home and against division rivals but have yet to play each other and won’t until week 11 and 13. Baltimore’s four-game win streak snapped with a blowout loss against Houston. Pittsburgh started 2-3, but now holds a three-game winning streak and could make it four against the Chiefs. Cincinnati started 3-1 before a four-game skid left them in their current position in the standings. Cleveland started out with a five-game slide and is 2-2 since. Look to the Ravens-Steelers matchups in weeks 11 and 13 to influence the division race, but it looks like the Ravens could win out with a likely split in that series.
AFC South
Houston (7-1) leads the way, though Indianapolis (5-3) is holding up better than expected after Peyton Manning’s departure. Tennessee (3-6) looks to fall out of playoff contention in the later weeks and Jacksonville (1-7) has little chance. The Texans started the season with a 5-0 run before they fell to Green Bay at home, but have beaten the Ravens and Broncos. A solid running game with Arian Foster and third-ranked defense keep the Texans well in the playoff picture with the second-highest differential in the league (+100). The Colts, sixth in passing yards, take a three-game win streak to Jacksonville before they play New England in week 11. The defense plays the pass well, but has let opponents run well on them. The Titans did not have an easy schedule their first nine games, but 3-6 does not reflect well anyway as they sit at the bottom of the league in pass and rush defense. Jacksonville’s sole victory was a spoiler upset over division rival Indianapolis, but as of now, they take a five-game losing streak back home to a rematch against the Colts and face AFC East opponents for weeks 13 through 16. Houston, at their pace, look on-track to win the division, but Indianapolis has a solid-enough team to remain in the division and wild card hunt.
AFC West
Two games separate first (Denver at 5-3) and third (Oakland at 3-5) with San Diego (4-4) in between and Kansas City (1-7) in the dust. Peyton Manning continues his high offense ways as the Broncos stand fourth in passing yards. The defense holds up solid at tenth in passing yards allowed and 12th in rushing yards. The Broncos lost to Houston, Atlanta and New England, all above .500. San Diego started 3-1 before a three-game swoon. In two of those games, the Chargers lost to cellar-dwellers Cleveland and New Orleans in tight games. Switch those outcomes and the West is theirs to lose. The Raiders started 1-4 before they defeated Jacksonville and Kansas City. Though seventh in passing yards, they are next-to-last in running yards and sit 21st in both defensive categories. Kansas City’s one win was against fellow basement mate New Orleans in week three and the Chiefs are on a five-game slide. Denver won out over San Diego and, provided they do it again in week 11, hold their own destiny for the division race.
AFC Playoffs if they started today:
#1 Houston gets a first-round bye and guaranteed home field in the AFC playoffs
#2 Baltimore gets a first-round bye
#6 Pittsburgh at #3 New England in the Wild Card round
#5 Indianapolis at #4 Denver in the Wild Card round
AFC Playoff prediction:
#1 Houston (13-3) gets a first-round bye and guaranteed home field in the AFC playoffs
#2 Baltimore (12-4) gets a first-round bye
#6 Miami (9-7) at #3 New England (11-5) in the Wild Card round
#5 Pittsburgh (10-6) at #4 Denver (11-5) in the Wild Card round
