Super Bowl Sunday approaches fast, and this year’s big game in New Orleans looks to remain a close contest. While a student poll in the library named the 49ers as the likely winner, I see more reason to believe the Ravens will win.
The San Francisco 49ers, who switched quarterbacks after Alex Smith suffered a concussion and Colin Kaepernick dominated in his first career start, will take on the Baltimore Ravens, who defeated Indianapolis and upset Denver and New England on the road to capture the AFC title. This game will be the first Super Bowl to feature two teams undefeated in Super Bowl appearances as San Francisco won five rings in five Super Bowls and Baltimore won their only Super Bowl to end the 2000 season.
If the media has not said this enough already, this game will feature, for the first time ever, two brothers facing off as head coaches in any postseason game among the big four sports of North America (football, basketball, baseball and hockey). San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh helped turn the 49ers around and take them to back-to-back playoff appearances after a nine-year streak of missing the playoffs. Baltimore’s John Harbaugh, the older brother, takes a Ravens team that only lacks a ring to show for their work as they have won at least one playoff game every year for the past five years, including six on the road.
The quarterback position battle tests the hot hand against experience. Colin Kaepernick, whose 10th career start in the NFL is this Sunday, poses a dual threat to the Ravens defense. Joe Flacco, who has won an NFL record six road playoff games and 63 starts in the first five years of his career, takes a solid passing game to New Orleans alongside running back Ray Rice, who can run and receive passes. Baltimore leads the postseason in passing yards per game with 276.
San Francisco’s Frank Gore and Baltimore’s Rice show similar stats throughout the regular season, though Gore also works with a running quarterback in Kaepernick. Either player in the backfield can run the ball, opening the defense up for play fakes while both are legitimate threats to carry. Rice also doubles as a receiving option, getting 61 receptions in the regular season.
Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin face off as primary receiver targets on passes with two of the best quarterbacks in the league. Crabtree made 85 catches in the regular season while Boldin had 65, but Boldin averaged 1.2 more yards per catch than Crabtree. The Ravens also feature Jacoby Jones, who caught a 77-yard touchdown pass to force overtime against the Broncos.
Justin Tucker has a more distinct advantage in the kicking matchup than other position matchups. David Akers made only 9 of 19 field goals from 40 yards or longer in the regular season while Tucker is 14 for 17 in the same span. Tucker made a 47 yard kick in double overtime to lift the Ravens past the Broncos in the Divisional round.
Both defenses boast top-level stats and helped both teams continue their quests for the Lombardi Trophy. The Ravens led the playoffs in points allowed per game (30), passes defended (25), tackles (247), sacks (5.0) and interceptions (5). The Ravens intercepted Peyton Manning during overtime in the Divisional round and Tom Brady twice on the Patriots’ final two drives in the AFC Championship to set up or seal victory.
The 49ers defense leads in less flashy stats, but in ways just as important. The 49ers have allowed the fewest yards after contact per game in the past two seasons and led this year’s playoffs as well (55 YAC per game). They also led the playoffs in rushing defense (92.5 yards per game) and punt return defense (1.2 return yards per attempt). The 49ers finished second in scoring defense in the regular season (17.1 points per game) while the Ravens finished 10 spots down. Teams that finished first or second in scoring defense are 16-5 in the Super Bowl against teams that didn’t and have won the last eight. The 1990 Giants started the current streak.
The numbers set this game up for a close contest. Even after a lot of research over this game, it could go either way. The 49ers have versatility on offense and efficiency on defense, but the Ravens have playoff experience, comparable numbers and defeated the two favorites to win the AFC title to make it to Super Bowl 47. Even running the game 50,000 times does not clarify the game when the actual Super Bowl could play out like one of every three the Ravens took in the Prediction Machine.
Prediction: Ravens 27, 49ers 24
I thought the 49ers would score 27, but with David Akers’ consistency rate from 40+ yards out, the Ravens may force San Francisco to kick one or two from that range. Also note the Ravens have allowed touchdowns on 43.4 percent of red-zone drives, the second-best rate in the NFL since the regular season started. The Ravens allow more yards, but in pieces since they have clocked more defensive plays per game than the 49ers, in part due to their double overtime game against Denver. Though the 49ers have a dual threat in Kaepernick, the Ravens have seen his style before in Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III. Kaepernick’s 10th career start is this game. If he cannot get on a roll quick, his nerves could give before he has a chance to regroup. The Ravens’ offense has pulled through in tight spots this postseason when needed and leads in passing offense f0r the playoffs. Rice’s flexibility should help enough to make a difference. The Ravens have overcome statistical chances before. Before Jones’ 77-yard touchdown catch, with 31 seconds left in regulation, the Denver Broncos had a 99.9 percent chance of victory. Denver went on to lose.
